From Polar Bear to Polarizing: Pete Alonso and the Mets’ Big Decision

Pete Alonso checks a lot of boxes for the Mets. He’s the guy you want at the plate in the big moment, the player you can build marketing campaigns around, and one of the best power hitters in the game. But as much as he seems like a perfect fit, no decision in baseball is ever that simple. With reports of a strong offer already on the table, there’s reason to wonder if Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, might be overplaying a losing hand, but contract negotiations—especially with Scott Boras involved—tend to be more marathon than sprint.

Before we dive into the pros and cons, let’s take a step back and look at how we got here.

For me, I think Pete is one of those guys who is a homegrown star—you try and keep them around forever, warts and all. Some of those warts we haven’t discussed yet. On the downside, Pete's a 30-year-old power hitter, and those tend to decline quickly. Pete has made himself into an adequate defender, very good in fact at scoops, but he’s not a Gold Glover. I’m still a little annoyed that Pete agreed to participate in the Home Run Derby only if he was selected to the All-Star team last year, which cost Lindor or Nimmo a shot—both of whom were more deserving. But let’s be honest, the second that ball left his bat in Milwaukee, all of that went out the window.

Back in 2019, then-rookie Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen made a decision that felt bold at the time and downright historic in hindsight. Instead of playing the classic baseball game of service-time chess, Van Wagenen, a former player agent himself, announced that Pete Alonso—fresh off a scorching spring training—would be on the Opening Day roster. It was a feel-good story for Mets fans and a slap on the back for Pete. But here’s the kicker: that move is the reason we’re even having this debate today. By starting Alonso’s service clock immediately, the Mets ensured he’d hit free agency a year earlier than if they’d held him in the minors for two measly weeks.

To be fair, Alonso more than earned his spot. In those infamous two weeks, Pete batted .360 with a 1.299 OPS, hit six homers, and drove in 17 runs while the Mets went 9-5. That debut season was the stuff of legend: 53 home runs (a rookie record), 120 RBIs, a Home Run Derby title, and the unanimous NL Rookie of the Year Award. Alonso wasn’t just good; he was the kind of rookie who made you wonder if he was secretly built in a lab under Citi Field.

Van Wagenen’s justification back then was refreshingly straightforward: “We’re here to win now.” And Alonso’s bat did give the Mets their best chance to win. But as Pete’s agent, Scott Boras, likes to remind teams, short-term gains have long-term costs. And now here we are—debating whether Alonso should be locked up long-term or if his camp is overestimating the market in a way that might come back to haunt them.

As if Pete Alonso’s free agency timeline wasn’t already a maze of what-ifs, the 2022 lockout briefly threatened to throw another curveball. Had the work stoppage dragged into the regular season, resulting in just 14 canceled games, Alonso’s free agency could have been pushed back a year, making him a Met through 2025. It’s the kind of alternate reality Mets fans probably wouldn’t mind visiting. Shohei Ohtani and Jack Flaherty were in similar situations, but it’s hard to argue that anyone stood to lose more than Pete—both in dollars and career trajectory. Imagine putting up historic numbers, winning fans over with a charming personality and dingers galore, only to have your big payday yanked away by a labor dispute.

Thankfully for Alonso, the union had his back, vowing to fight for full service time regardless of how many games were played. It wasn’t the Players Association’s first rodeo; back in 1995, they successfully clawed back service time lost during the strike. In the end, the lockout didn’t cost any games, just a few extra cold nights in April. But the scare highlighted an uncomfortable truth: Alonso’s early-career production has come at a bargain price, at least by baseball standards. Between 2019 and 2021, Pete earned less than $2 million total—a solid paycheck for most of us, sure, but spare change in a league where players with half his talent make quadruple that in a single season. It’s no wonder his agent, Scott Boras, is out to secure every last dollar now.

It was a bold strategy, no doubt—one that paid off in a jackpot for Aaron Judge. Back in his contract year of 2022, Judge turned the baseball world into his personal highlight reel, hitting .311 with 177 hits, 62 home runs, 131 RBIs, and 133 runs scored over 157 games. That season earned him his first MVP award, his third Silver Slugger, and a nine-year, $360 million deal with the Yankees, averaging a cool $40 million annually. Not too shabby for a guy who doubled down on himself.

Then there’s Juan Soto, who apparently prefers his poker chips stacked skyscraper-high. After turning down a 15-year, $440 million deal from the Nationals and later a 13-year, $350 million offer, he gambled his way into free agency. The gamble paid off handsomely—Soto crushed it in 2024, batting .288 with 166 hits, 41 homers, 109 RBIs, and 128 runs scored in 157 games for the Yankees. He won his fifth Silver Slugger, finished third in AL MVP voting, and landed the largest contract in sports history: a mind-boggling 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets.

So, how did Pete Alonso’s season shape up as he approached free agency? Well, not quite in the same stratosphere. Pete posted a .240 average with 146 hits, 34 homers, 88 RBIs, and 91 runs scored in 162 games. Respectable numbers for most, but not his best. In fact, it marked the lowest home run, RBI, and on-base percentage totals of his career for any non-shortened season, along with the second-lowest batting average and career-worst slugging percentage. For the first time in three years, Pete didn’t even snag a single MVP vote..

All in all, it’s not exactly the kind of season you want when you’re playing a high-stakes hand at the poker table. Compared to Judge’s and Soto’s hands, Pete’s looks more like a pair of fives.

And now, we get to the latest buzz. The Mets reportedly have a three-year, $90 million offer on the table for Alonso—far short of the six-year, $137.5 million deal he’d have needed to break even on his gamble. Still, $30 million per year would make Pete the highest-paid first baseman in the league, edging out Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($28.8 million) and Freddie Freeman ($27 million). That might help Pete—and, let’s be honest, Scott Boras—save some face.

But let’s play a little game of “Is Pete better?” and stack him up against the league’s top-earning first basemen. Vlad Jr.? A two-time Silver Slugger and a perennial MVP candidate. Freddie Freeman? An MVP, World Series champion, and one of the most consistent hitters in the game. Kris Bryant? Injuries have been an issue, sure, but at his peak, he’s an MVP and a dynamic player. Bryce Harper, who moonlights at first for Philly? Two MVPs and an October highlight reel that just won’t quit. Matt Olson? A league-leading 54 homers and an OPS+ of 178 last year.

Does Pete truly belong in their tier? Or is this contract more about optics than outright dominance?

At this point, both Pete Alonso and the Mets have painted themselves into a metaphorical corner—one of those tiny, awkward ones where nobody can move without stepping on wet paint. If the Mets were serious about moving on from Alonso, they had no shortage of budget-friendly alternatives this offseason.

Christian Walker signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Astros, Paul Goldschmidt agreed to a one-year, $12.5 million bargain with the Yankees, and Carlos Santana inked a one-year, $12 million deal. Affordable, productive, and not exactly walking on crutches. Meanwhile, the remaining free-agent first basemen aren’t exactly a murderer’s row: Justin Turner (40, WAR 2.2), Donovan Solano (37, 2.0), Connor Joe (32, 2.0), and a motley crew of others that includes Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. The bottom of the list might even make Rowdy Tellez blush.

One of the pivots if Pete signs elsewhere is to pursue Alex Bregman, who reportedly turned down a six-year offer worth about $156 million to stay with the Astros. Bregman would take over at third base while Mark Vientos moves to first. Bregman brings a Gold Glove-caliber glove at the hot corner and consistent offensive production, typically hitting around .270 with 20-some-odd home runs and driving in 80-90 runs.

As for Vientos, the idea of shifting him to first isn’t far-fetched. He’s logged a total of 14 games (89 innings) at first in the majors and 70 games (567 innings) in the minors. Still, it’s a big ask for a young player who showed so much promise last year to focus on a new position. It’s not a bad fallback, but it’s just that—a fallback. And for me, at least, it’s far from ideal.

On the flip side, where exactly is Pete supposed to go? Teams that needed a first baseman already locked up their guys—and spoiler alert—Pete wasn’t it. Are any of them willing to make Pete the highest-paid first baseman in the game? If they were, don’t you think it would’ve been done by now? Let’s run down the remaining options:

San Francisco Giants

The Giants, despite failing to bag a marquee bat over the past few offseasons, finally splurged on Willy Adames with a seven-year, $182 million deal. Adding Pete Alonso to the mix would certainly make headlines in the Bay Area. Alonso has feasted at Oracle Park, cranking out seven home runs in just 17 career games.

The current first-base platoon of LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores isn’t scaring anyone, especially after Flores underperformed as the right-handed half of the equation. Bringing Alonso aboard would be a statement—one that screams, “Yes, we can!” Or at least, “We’re trying.”

Texas Rangers

Fresh off their 2023 World Series win, the Rangers are in full win-now mode with a lineup featuring Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jacob deGrom. They just traded Nathaniel Lowe to Washington, leaving a hole at first base that Alonso could fill nicely. Jake Burger is in the mix, but he’s more of a utility option who can also play third or DH. Pete’s power bat would fit right in with this squad of heavy hitters.

Seattle Mariners

Ah, Seattle, where baseballs go to die—and not because of fan apathy. T-Mobile Park isn’t exactly a home run paradise, which might give Alonso pause. But the Mariners, who finished a disappointing 21st in runs scored last year, could use a bat with Pete’s pop.

Their first-base depth chart currently features Luke Raley and a “committee approach” that includes Ty France and Justin Turner. It’s not exactly an inspiring group, but the Mariners may need to overpay to lure Alonso to the rainy Northwest.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals said goodbye to Paul Goldschmidt, who took his talents (and affordable $12.5 million price tag) to the Yankees. Alonso could slot in nicely as his replacement—if the Cardinals are willing to spend, which they haven’t shown much interest in doing this offseason.

Alec Burleson is currently penciled in as their first baseman. While Burleson’s left-handed bat (.734 OPS) is serviceable, it’s a big step down from the production Alonso could offer. But would the Cardinals open their checkbook for a nine-figure deal after letting Goldy walk? History says no.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels are, well, the Angels—a team perennially stuck in baseball purgatory. With Shohei Ohtani gone and Mike Trout spending more time on the injured list than on the field, the team desperately needs an identity.

Signing Alonso could provide a spark, but owner Arte Moreno might still be gun-shy after the Albert Pujols and Trout contracts went south. Nolan Schanuel, the Angels’ current first baseman, posted a pedestrian .705 OPS last season, leaving plenty of room for improvement. But would Pete want to join a team that lost 99 games last year?

Other than the Giants and the Rangers, none of these teams have much protection in the lineup for Pete, nor do I think any of them are likely to offer more than four years. If Alonso were to sign a four-year deal now, he’d be back on the free-agent market at age 34, potentially worth even less than he is now.

Here in New York, Pete doesn’t have to carry the team on his back. Instead, he just needs to complement Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor in a lineup where he can thrive. Plus, we already know Pete can handle New York—a skill set not every slugger has mastered.

From a pure baseball perspective, keeping Pete Alonso around makes a lot of sense. He’s a known quantity, a fan favorite, and—despite a down year—still one of the most prolific power hitters in the league. A deal like four years at $30 million per season with a player opt-out after two years is a win-win. It gives Pete and Boras the chance to test the waters again if he plays his way into bigger money, while giving the Mets stability in the short term without committing to a decade-long albatross contract.

Now, let’s talk about Vlad Guerrero Jr. He’s hitting free agency next year, and he’ll be the marquee name on the market. Adding Vlad to the mix could take the Mets’ lineup from scary to downright terrifying. If you manage to get Pete at $30 million annually and make a play for Vlad, you could shift Pete to DH and build one of the most powerful offensive cores in baseball. Soto, Lindor, Vlad, and Pete? That’s a Murderer’s Row 2.0.

Sure, it’s a bit of a pipe dream, but isn’t that what being a baseball fan is all about? You dream big. You imagine impossible scenarios. And sometimes, just sometimes, the team actually pulls it off.

In the end, Pete Alonso represents more than just a player in a Mets uniform. He’s the face of a franchise when it's at it best has been defined by its homegrown stars and a beacon of hope for a fanbase that’s always dreaming of bigger things. Sure, there are warts—every player has them. But Pete’s power, personality, and knack for delivering in the big moments make him the kind of player you hate to see in another jersey. The Mets and Pete Alonso are at a crossroads, one where sentiment, business, and the ever-changing landscape of baseball collide. Whether they find common ground or go their separate ways, one thing’s for sure: the Mets will have a hard time replacing everything Pete brings to the table. And for Mets fans, no matter how it ends, Pete’s time in Flushing will always be the stuff of legend. LFGM !