The Mets snatched a free agent away from the Yankees on Friday, just not that one.
With the baseball universe still waiting for Juan Soto to reach a decision about where he will play — presumably for the next 12-15 seasons — the Mets signed Clay Holmes to a three-year contract worth $38 million, pending a physical.
Holmes, a reliever for the first seven seasons of his major league career, will be converted to a starting pitcher with the Mets.
The New York Mets’ decision to explore moving reliever Clay Holmes to the starting rotation is a fascinating experiment that echoes successful transitions made by several MLB pitchers in recent years. Holmes, currently a standout reliever, has seen steady improvement during his time in the bullpen. But could a shift to starting reinvigorate his career even further? By examining the cases of Michael King, Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, and Seth Lugo, the Mets may find reason for optimism.
Clay Holmes’ Current Profile
Holmes has developed into a reliable reliever since his early struggles with the Pittsburgh Pirates. His transformation began after joining the Yankees in 2021, where he flourished, delivering a 1.61 ERA across 25 appearances in his initial stint. He continued to thrive in high-leverage roles, posting back-to-back All-Star-caliber seasons in 2022 and 2023 with WHIPs of 1.021 and 1.175, respectively.
Despite being primarily a ground-ball machine and setup man, Holmes’ ability to induce soft contact, manage walks, and limit home runs at pitcher friendly Citi Field could lend itself well to starting. His consistent ERA+ (152 in 2023) and FIP (3.02) indicate he has the underlying tools to handle a higher workload.
Success Stories from Bullpen to Rotation
1. Michael King
The Yankees successfully transitioned King into a starting role in 2023, and he became a workhorse for the Padres in 2024. After fluctuating between relief and spot starts early in his career, King finally blossomed with a 2.95 ERA over 173.2 innings in 2024, finishing seventh in Cy Young voting. His 10.4 K/9 and low HR/9 demonstrate that his swing-and-miss stuff and pitch efficiency were not diminished by the added innings.
2. Garrett Crochet
Although Crochet’s role shifted out of necessity due to injuries, his dominance as a starter in 2024 for the White Sox (3.58 ERA, 146 innings) was impressive. Known for his strikeout prowess, Crochet’s ability to navigate lineups multiple times relied on his electric fastball and slider combination. His K/9 rate (12.9) suggests Holmes could similarly leverage his sinker-slider mix to extend his effectiveness.
3. Reynaldo López
López’s career is a testament to resilience. After finding middling success as a starter earlier in his career, López transitioned to relief, only to return to starting with renewed confidence. In 2024, López thrived in the Braves’ rotation, posting a 1.99 ERA in 135.2 innings. His success came from refining his mechanics and pitch sequencing.
4. Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo offers another compelling example of a successful transition from bullpen to rotation. Lugo began his MLB career with the New York Mets in 2016 and showcased versatility as both a starter and reliever. Over nine seasons, Lugo accumulated a 56-40 record with a 3.38 ERA across 847.2 innings in 334 games. Notably, in 2024 with the Kansas City Royals, Lugo posted a remarkable 16-9 record with a 3.00 ERA and 181 strikeouts over 206.2 innings, earning multiple accolades including an All-Star nod and a Gold Glove Award.
Challenges Holmes May Face
Stamina and Durability: Building the endurance to pitch six or more innings consistently will be crucial.
Expanded Repertoire: Holmes may need to incorporate a changeup or splitter to complement his sinker and slider.
Third Time Through the Order: Adjusting to hitters after multiple viewings in a game will test his adaptability.
The Mets’ decision to consider Clay Holmes as a starter is a gamble but not an unwarranted one. With proper workload management and pitch refinement, Holmes could mirror the successes of King, Crochet, López, and Lugo. Lugo’s exemplary transition underscores the potential rewards of such a move, providing a roadmap for Holmes to follow. If successful, the move would address the Mets’ ongoing rotation depth concerns and provide Holmes a chance to redefine his career trajectory.
This offseason experiment could very well be the spark that transforms Holmes from a stellar reliever to a valuable, versatile starter, much like the pitchers who have successfully navigated similar transitions before him.
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