As the Mets wind down their regular season campaign with pivotal stops in the battleground states of Georgia and Wisconsin, they’re not just hunting for wins to secure a Wild Card spot—they’re also looking to join an exclusive club. Prior to this season, four teams had fired Buck Showalter, only to see new managers take over. The Mets became the fifth when they hired Carlos Mendoza. Of those previous four teams, 50% made the playoffs the next season. But with a series win in Atlanta, the Mets could bump that percentage up to 60%.
That’s where the stakes get even higher. Two of those teams not only made the playoffs but went on to win the World Series. Can the Mets pull off an October surprise and make it three for three? Only time will tell. Now, let’s head over to our version of Steve Kornacki’s big board to break down the Buck Effect.
In 1990, Buck Showalter joined the New York Yankees' coaching staff and eventually took over as manager in 1992, succeeding Stump Merrill. Over his four seasons at the helm, Showalter led the Yankees to a 313-268 record. In the strike-shortened 1994 season, he guided the team to a first-place finish and was recognized as the American League Manager of the Year by the Associated Press. Showalter also managed the American League team in the 1995 All-Star Game.
The Yankees reached the playoffs for the first time since 1981 in 1995, securing a wild card spot, though they were eliminated by the Seattle Mariners in the Division Series. After the season, owner George Steinbrenner offered Showalter a two-year contract extension but insisted he dismiss hitting coach Rick Down. Showalter refused to comply, which led to a parting of ways. Some reports suggest Showalter was fired, while others claim he resigned. By the end of his Yankees tenure, Showalter had a regular-season record of 313-268 and a playoff record of 2-3.
Showalter’s exit was largely attributed to his stance during the players' strike, where he defended his team. The Yankees under new Manager Joe Torre went on to win the World Series the very next year, sparking a run of four championships in five years. However, Showalter couldn’t bring himself to watch the Yankees' triumph, remarking that he felt for the New York fans who were impacted by the 1994 strike.
In November 1995, Buck Showalter was approached to lead an expansion franchise set to begin play in 1998—the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was intrigued by the opportunity to have a significant hand in shaping the team's roster from the ground up, and he agreed to a seven-year, $7 million contract.
In the Diamondbacks’ inaugural season in 1998, Showalter guided the team to a 65-97 record. But after an aggressive offseason that saw the team acquire stars like Randy Johnson, Luis Gonzalez, Tony Womack, Steve Finley, and others, Showalter led the 1999 Diamondbacks to a remarkable 100-62 record, clinching the National League West title. It was the fastest any expansion team had won a division title in MLB history. Despite their success, they were eliminated by the New York Mets in the NL Division Series.
The team struggled in 2000, finishing with an 85-77 record, and Showalter was dismissed on October 1, 2000. The organization cited the need for a manager with a "lighter touch" compared to Showalter's strict, disciplinarian style. Over his three seasons with Arizona, Showalter posted a 250-236 record. In a twist of fate, much like with the Yankees, Showalter’s replacement—Bob Brenly—led the Diamondbacks to a World Series victory the following year.
After a stint as an ESPN analyst, Buck Showalter was hired by the Texas Rangers in October 2002 following a last-place finish under their previous manager. In his four seasons with the Rangers, the team never finished higher than third place in the AL West. While his 2004 squad outperformed expectations after trading Alex Rodriguez, they still fell short of the playoffs, and Showalter was named AL Manager of the Year. He was dismissed in 2006, ending his Rangers tenure with a 319-329 record.
Showalter returned to the dugout in 2010 as the manager of the Baltimore Orioles, inheriting a team with the worst record in the majors. Under his leadership, the Orioles improved significantly, leading to postseason appearances in 2012, 2014, and 2016. However, the Orioles struggled toward the end of his tenure, culminating in a franchise-worst 115-loss season in 2018. Showalter’s contract was not renewed after that season. Neither the Rangers nor Orioles made the playoffs the year after his departure.
On December 18, 2021, the New York Mets appointed Buck Showalter as their manager, signing him to a three-year deal. Continuing a long-standing tradition, Showalter wore number 11, the same number he had donned at all his managerial stops except Baltimore, where he paid tribute to Johnny Oates by wearing number 26.
In 2022, Showalter led the Mets to their first 100-win season since 1988. He also excelled in managerial challenges, tying for the most successful overturns (26) and posting the highest overturn percentage (78.6%) among all MLB managers. Notably, he was the only full-season manager to avoid ejection that year. Despite their strong performance, the Mets saw a 10-game division lead slip away by September, capped by a crucial three-game sweep by the Atlanta Braves. The Mets lost the NL East title in a tiebreaker and were eliminated by the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Series. Showalter was named NL Manager of the Year for his efforts.
However, the 2023 season did not go as planned. With the Mets underperforming, Showalter faced increasing scrutiny from fans and media. Despite this, in late June, team owner Steve Cohen publicly backed Showalter, guaranteeing his job for the remainder of what he admitted was an "incredibly frustrating" season. On the final day of the season, Showalter announced that he had been dismissed as Mets manager by newly hired President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns.
Carlos Mendoza's debut season as Mets manager was filled with ups and downs, resembling a political campaign with early setbacks, comebacks, and moments of hope tempered by eventual setbacks. The Mets started the 2024 season with a 0-5 record, their worst start since 2005, after being swept by the Milwaukee Brewers and losing two more to the Detroit Tigers. However, by April 20, they bounced back with a 12-8 record, fueled by a six-game winning streak and five consecutive series victories.
In May, the Mets struggled, suffering multiple bullpen collapses, including a blown 9-5 lead against the Miami Marlins, and falling to a 22-33 record by the end of the month. This led to a players-only meeting, led by Francisco Lindor, which temporarily boosted the team's morale and performance.
June saw a brief resurgence, including their first sweep of the season against the Washington Nationals and a dramatic split against the Phillies in the MLB London Series. The Mets' form peaked with a seven-game winning streak and a sweep of the Yankees, reaching .500 by the end of the month. However, a series loss to the Houston Astros highlighted the team’s inconsistency.
July brought a return to form, with the Mets climbing above .500 and momentarily securing a playoff position. However, the momentum faltered as they finished the month with a 57-51 record, falling out of playoff contention.
August began with the Mets spiraling into a series of losses, dropping games to the Angels, Cardinals, and Mariners. Yet, they found some rhythm by mid-August, winning series against the Orioles and Marlins, improving their playoff chances slightly. However, bullpen collapses, including a costly loss to the Diamondbacks, put them four games behind the Braves in the Wild Card race with 29 games left.
In September, the Mets rallied again with a nine-game winning streak, sweeping the White Sox, Red Sox, and part of a series against the Reds. The streak brought them back into playoff contention, tied with the Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot. Despite losing the series finale to the Reds, the Mets stayed competitive by defeating the Blue Jays in dramatic fashion, overcoming an 8-inning no-hit bid and securing a 6-2 win. However, the team lost a crucial series to the Phillies, though they managed to secure their first winning season since 2022.
As the season neared its conclusion, the Mets found themselves in strong form, sweeping the Washington Nationals and winning three of four against the Philadelphia Phillies. This included a dramatic 2-1 victory over former Met Zack Wheeler, which kept them two games ahead of the Braves in the Wild Card race. With their playoff hopes on the line, the Mets now face a crucial upcoming series in Atlanta. A series victory over the Braves would secure their spot in the postseason.
As the Mets approach the conclusion of their season, the impact of Buck Showalter's tenure is undeniably significant. His time with the team reflects a complex journey of leadership, resilience, and the quest for excellence. Showalter’s managerial style and decisions shaped not only the team's performance but also the atmosphere within the clubhouse. The transition to Carlos Mendoza signifies a new chapter, one that aims to build on the foundation laid during Showalter's time at the helm.
An interesting trend emerges: if the Mets secure a playoff spot, they would join the Yankees and Diamondbacks, two teams that thrived after parting ways with Showalter, showcasing a shift in momentum that could signal a fresh start. On one side of the argument, supporters believe that Showalter set a crucial foundation for success, instilling discipline and a competitive spirit that Mendoza can build upon. Conversely, critics argue that Showalter's intense style may have worn thin, leading to a sense of stagnation. In this view, a new approach under Mendoza allows the players to relax and thrive, rediscovering their potential in a more balanced environment.
With critical games ahead, the Mets find themselves at a crossroads, needing to capitalize on the lessons learned from both success and struggle. As they face their pivotal series in Atlanta, the stakes are high, and the team must harness their collective strengths to secure a postseason berth. If they can channel their potential and learn from past experiences, the Mets have the opportunity to make a significant impact in October, maybe even pulling off their own October surprise.
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