The Mets hit the halfway point in the season Sunday, with the loss putting their record at 40-41 and leaving many questions still unanswered. What can we make of the first 81 games, and what can we look forward to (or fear) for the remaining 81? Our team – the crew that has watched the games, written the recaps and followed all the twists and turns of the last three months – weighs in, based on five key categories. Here’s what we each think about the season so far snd whether we'll be grimacing or Grimacing in the second half:
A.J. Carter
Overall assessment: Exactly what I thought they’d be, a .500 team. We forget that .500 doesn’t mean alternating wins and losses, but instead features peaks (June) and valleys (May) that even out over the course of a season.
Most pleasant surprise: Luis Severino, hands down. His 2023 record and injury history did not inspire confidence when the Mets signed him in the offseason, but he has been even more than we could have hoped: a consistent, reliable starter who right now is the staff’s ace. Hopefully, he can carry this through an entire season. Honorable mention: Harrison Bader’s bat, as well as his ability to stay on the field.
Biggest disappointment: Jeff McNeil. In 2022, we marveled at his bat control and the way he consistently beat the shift. Now that the shift is history, where is the bat control that would help him figure out where to hit the ball? Too many weak fly balls. Right now, Jose Iglesias is the better player both on the field and at bat.
Trade deadline activity: I think they’ll stand pat, especially if July is anything close to June. Not far enough out to have a fire sale, but no impetus to spend big, in assets and salary. Kodai Senga’s return and possibly Christian Scott’s recall should give the rotation a boost. If anything, I’d look for a possible closer if Edwin Diaz continues to create sticky situations when he takes the mound.
Second half prognosis: They way the whole league has gone (some call it parity, others mediocrity) , I think they’ll be in the postseason mix, especially if they can stay healthy. The Braves are banged up, the Phillies look like they have lost Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber for a bit, so who knows? Are we channeling 1973? You Gotta Believe.
John Coppinger
Overall assessment: They’re in the mix for the third wild card spot, which was all we could realistically hope for considering how top heavy the division/league is. They took a roller coaster ride to get there, but the hitting has come around and they’ve found a way to make a mid-level rotation work for them.
Most pleasant surprise: Mark Vientos. I don’t think even the most ardent Vientos supporters could have envisioned a batting average around .300, an OPS of .928, an OPS+ of 167, and defense at third base that hasn’t killed them. To all that complained about him not playing regularly last season, I think his numbers now are proof that the Mets have been handling him right all along.
Biggest disappointment: Jeff McNeil. The Mets had two roster spots last season that were essentially useless in Carlos Carrasco and Daniel Vogelbach. I would have never expected McNeil to be that guy this season. With the infield prospects coming up behind him, I’d be shocked if he made it to 2025 as a Met. I’d even be a little surprised if he made it to August.
Trade deadline activity: I wouldn’t go all in on deadline acquisitions for a season that they told us would be the transition season.And their recent hot streak has basically ended any chance of a sell off. So I’m perfectly fine with standing pat. But if they wanted to get somebody who would make a third wild card team a dangerous playoff team, how about Ryan Pressly to back up Diaz?
Second half prognosis: My expectations for this season were zero anyway, so whatever happens this season will be fine with me as long as nothing catastrophic happens. They have 14 games coming up against the Nationals, Pirates, and Rockies. If they clean up against them the way they should, then they’ll be right in the mix for WC3 until the end.
Shai Kushner
Overall assessment: They are who we thought they were. Across the board, the expectation was that this would be a .500 team, and mid-way through the season, here we are. The highs and lows have been a little more extreme than I was expecting, although that’s probably my bad.
Most pleasant surprise: Carlos Mendoza. The Mets have had quite a few rookie managers in recent years, some better than others, and still none of them have seemed as ready for the role as Mendoza. I trust in him more than I expected to after 81 games into his rookie season.
Biggest disappointment: Pete Alonso. Historically, Alonso has come across as an especially streaky player. When he’s going bad, it’s pretty bad. When it’s going good, it’s remarkable. There is a lot riding on Pete being remarkable, and we haven’t seen it yet.
Trade deadline activity: I think the Mets head into the deadline open to all paths, and likely end up a hybrid of buyers and sellers. I do think they’ll listen in on everyone, and I don’t think they’ll undersell. If they get absolutely bowled over by an offer, they’ll take it. I don’t think they’ll overpay for an established player by trading a highly regarded prospect, and I don’t think they need to do that. Most likely, they will focus on bullpen help, especially with the recent loss of Drew Smith. Of course, most other teams will as well.
Second half prognosis: More peaks and valleys. On the plus side, virtually the entire roster has been involved in their recent resurgence. So even if one or two players slump, there are others who can take over. It would take a full team slump to really set them back. Of course, we’ve already seen that full team slump for the whole month of May. Additionally, while they will (hopefully?) get Kodai Senga back in the near-ish future, there are bound to be more injuries to other players that will need to be addressed. Ultimately, I expect them to finish slightly above .500 and make the postseason. And then…anything can happen.
Mike Phillips
Overall Assessment: The Mets are exactly where I thought they would be, hanging around .500, but I didn’t expect the roller coaster ride that 2024 has been thus far. It is interesting to see that the Mets haven’t really played like a team that is average, either looking like world beaters or doormats with little time in between.
Most Pleasant Surprise: The most pleasant surprise is seeing how well this team has responded to a gut punch of a May that saw them hit rock bottom at 22-33 with Jorge Lopez getting cut after tossing his glove into the stands on May 29th. The fact that the Mets got back above .500 within a month says a lot about the character of this team after seeing how June of 2023 devastated the team to the point they did not recover.
Biggest Disappointment: The inability of the starting rotation to go deep into games consistently has been a major problem, especially now that some of the Mets’ top relievers are on the shelf. Kodai Senga’s extremely long rehab process has hurt the group and the Mets haven’t gotten nearly enough out of Jose Quintana or Tylor Megill over the course of the season.
Trade Deadline Activity: The All-Star Break record will provide a better indication of what the Mets will do but if they remain in the wild card hunt expect modest buys to bolster the bullpen. The clear hope is that the returns of Senga and Christian Scott will bolster the rotation and bullpen arms don’t cost a ton in prospects, which is good since it doesn’t feel like David Stearns wants to invest premium prospects to get rentals in what will be a seller’s market.
Second Half Prognosis: Given the roller-coaster nature of the season, I’d expect at least one more dip where things don’t go right for a few weeks and make life hard for the Mets. The finishing kick is tough as there are a lot of games with Philadelphia, Atlanta and Milwaukee down the stretch so this year ends a lot like 2005 (when coincidentally the Mets also started 0-5 with a first-year manager who was the former Yankees’ bench coach) with a winning record that finishes just shy of the postseason.
Mark Rosenman
Overall Assessment: Going into the season, Mets President David Stearns and owner Steve Cohen set a clear goal for the team: to be competitive. The early losses of Kodai Senga and Francisco Alvarez put a dent in that ambition, and the absence of J.D. Martinez on opening day compounded the challenges. Numerous injuries to the bullpen further tested the team’s resilience. However, as the roster got healthier, the Mets have shown they can live up to their leadership’s vision, emerging as a competitive team for 2024.
Most Pleasant Surprise: There have been many pleasant surprises on the Mets this season, with Reed Garrett emerging as a revelation and Adrian Houser’s transformation from starter to swingman in the bullpen proving eye-opening. I would put Mark Vientos in this mix; however, if you have been following me from day one this is exactly what I thought Vientos would be. But the most pleasant surprise has been manager Carlos Mendoza. Despite being a rookie manager, Mendoza has been rock steady all season. He hasn't relied solely on analytics, often going with his gut over the book. His leadership has instilled confidence in the team, which never lost faith in its ability. Coming in with a big question mark, Mendoza has accomplished what the more experienced Buck Showalter couldn’t last season: righting the ship and getting the team back to .500.
Biggest disappointment: Without a doubt, Jeff McNeil. The 2022 NL batting champion is barely hitting over the Mendoza line, and his fielding has also regressed, with four errors in just 67 games at second base compared to only three errors all of last season. Perhaps the most disheartening aspect of McNeil's performance is his apparent lack of joy on the field. While the rest of the team seems relaxed and having fun, McNeil appears uptight, frustrated, and playing tight. This starkly contrasts with José Iglesias, whose exuberance and the team's rallying around his song "OMG" have brought a positive energy to the clubhouse.
Trade deadline activity: The Mets face a tough decision as the trade deadline approaches, with several potential free agents, including Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, and Jose Quintana. Typically, if a team isn’t negotiating in-season and risks losing a player, they should trade them. However, in this case, the only player I would trade is Jose Quintana. The others are vital to the team, and if the Mets have a strong second half, I believe they would want to return. Therefore, I’m going against my usual rule and rolling the dice, hoping they will come back, much like Brandon Nimmo did.
Second half prognosis: Not to be confused with Prognosis Negative, the fictional movie referenced in the popular Seinfeld television series, my outlook for the second half of the season is decidedly positive. With highlights like Seymour Weiner, The Rally Pimp, The Grimace, and the energizing "OMG" moments, the Mets have had a competitive first half. A players-only team meeting appeared to turn the tide, and with Kodai Senga's return and Christian Scott getting more opportunities, the team is well-positioned. Additionally, a stretch of 14 games against the Nationals, Pirates, and Rockies suggests the Mets will remain in the hunt for a wild card spot all season long.
Matthew Silverman
Overall assessment: The team and its rookie manager have been very up and down, so it is logical that the Mets are around .500. If they can avoid another dismal month like May, the Mets may be able to manage the old goal of meaningful games in September.
Most pleasant surprise: Reed Garrett and Jose Iglesias. Who would have thought that one would be leading the team in wins and the other would have his own homemade walkup song while getting regular playing time? Jose has also served as defensive replacement at third base for the suddenly ready for prime time Mark Vientos.
Biggest disappointment: No one expected a Seaver-Matlack-Koosman rotation, but the inability of the starters to go past five innings has led to the team’s recurring bullpen problems from overuse. Simply put, if they don’t get more innings from the rotation odds are the club will wilt in the second half.
Trade deadline activity: I could still see the Mets trade off a couple of veterans to stock up on the Mets of tomorrow. Or maybe they’ll get lucky with a veteran reliever or two. No matter what happens this year, the Mets need an aggressive rebuild if they hope to contend with the Braves and Phillies in the years to come.
Second half prognosis: This team is not great, but neither is the National League. If the starters can come through, the bullpen can hold leads, and Edwin Diaz comes off his suspension performing like his old self, the Mets should be able to contend to the end. The Diamondbacks and Rangers showed last year that all you need to do is make the playoffs and get hot in October in the bloated postseason setup.