Senga's Setback Creates an Opening Day Predicament
Spring Training, a period typically filled with optimism and anticipation, has delivered a familiar dose of adversity for the New York Mets. Much like the annual return of swallows to Capistrano, the Mets seem destined for injury news each spring (see Degrom, Scherzer, Verlander, Diaz, Cespedes, Gooden, the team accountant, an usher etc. etc.). This season is no exception, with the today's revelation that Kodai Senga, the Mets' ace and likely Opening Day starter, will be sidelined due to a strained right shoulder, as announced by the team on Thursday.
Mets President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns, characterized the injury as a "moderate" strain. According to Stearns, the immediate plan for Senga is a shutdown "until these symptoms subside and strength returns to his normal levels." Once this occurs, Senga will undergo a personalized spring training regimen, estimated to take at least five to six weeks. When pressed for a timeline, Stearns admitted, "I can't tell you right now," but expressed confidence that Senga won't be available for Opening Day. However, Stearns offered reassurance , "I do expect him to make a bunch of starts for us this year. This is not a surgical-type problem. This is something with rest and treatment, potentially an injection, that can move forward."
Senga, no stranger to such setbacks, shared through an interpreter that he faced a similar challenge about five years ago when transitioning from a relief to a starting pitcher in Japan. Citing experience, Senga emphasized the impact of not being at 100%, stating, "If I was asked, can you throw 96, 97, 98? Yeah, I can throw 96, 97, 98. But the game isn’t about throwing fast. It’s about getting hitters out. And I felt like at this point, I’m not going to be able to perform at the highest level, so giving a little bit of time is the right move."
Mets' Management Sticks to a Winning Formula
In 2023, the Mets successfully implemented their version of the Yankees"Joba Rules," adjusting the rotation to provide Senga with extra rest days, mirroring his usage in Japan where he pitched once a week. The strategy paid off handsomely, with Senga boasting a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts, only three of which came on the standard four days of rest. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner have indicated that this proven blueprint will continue in the 2024 season. Despite Senga's assurance that he won't pitch on Opening Day or at the season's start, he expressed the intention to return with the ability to pitch on four or five days' rest whenever the team requires.
Addressing the Void: Long-Term Sustainability Over Quick Fixes
While Mets fans may clamor for big-name signings given owner Steve Cohen's deep pockets, the organization prioritizes long-term sustainability and multiple championships. Former GM Billy Eppler's deadline moves were pivotal in achieving this goal. Notably, he exchanged quick-fix, high-salaried players acquired through free agency for top-level prospects, shouldering a significant portion of their salaries in the process. For instance, in the case of the Max Scherzer trade, the Mets absorbed $20.83 million of his $43.3 million due in 2024. The strategy of avoiding quick-fix, big free-agent multiyear contracts for short-term rotation needs is evident. So what's the answer ? To borrow from Paul Simon's "50 Ways to Leave Your Lover," the answer is easy if you take it logically" and it lies in signing a pitcher at the Major League minimum.
Trevor Bauer: A Cost-Effective Solution?
(Continue in your Rod Serling Twilight zone voice) Consider Trevor Bauer, a pitcher with an impressive resume, including a Cy Young award, an ERA title, All-Star appearance, and a lifetime .546 winning percentage in over 200 Major League games. His ability to take the ball consistently—every five days or even four, as he prefers—sets him apart. Bauer spent the 2023 season in Japan, posting a 2.59 ERA in 24 appearances for the Yokohama Bay Stars, compiling an 11-6 record over a 156 IP season with a 2.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.13.While I am fully aware of Bauer's baggage(as are the Mets front office, and PR Department as well as the Cohen Family) he is the logical choice for a strategic, cost-effective fix. With Senga on the injured list, the proposed rotation would then include Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, José Quintana, Trevor Bauer, and a choice between Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and Jose Butto (with a personal preference for Lucchesi). If Bauer excels, and the Mets are. out of contention they could trade him at the deadline for a prospect, creating a win-win scenario despite the potential public relations nightmare. In navigating the Mets' pitching predicament, the focus should still remain on sustainable success, even if it means making tough calls regarding off field issues. The fact that Trevor could be an answer to a short term problem and then potentially bring back a top level prospect or any prospect at all makes me say the Mets must just Grin and Bauer it .
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